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Tuesday, 11 September 2012 13:39

Demand Chain Optimization

Managing the demand chain, from manufacturers through wholesalers, distributors and retailers and onto consumers, is a daunting task.

The numbers of Stock Keeping Units, outlets, supply sources, seasons and product characteristics are huge, and the degree of complexity in the supply chain is challenging. Creating efficiency in the demand chain requires a combination of art and science.

We need sound, scientifically-based replenishment methodologies, which incorporate statistical and operations research techniques, to analyze the richness of contemporary databases and to deduce patterns, trends, variabilities and the dynamics of customer demands. Such scientific techniques enable us to balance the various costs—inventory, transportation, handling, warehousing and other direct and indirect labor—while simultaneously providing optimal services for customers.

Published in
Thursday, 23 August 2012 06:43

DEALING WITH INACCURATE FORECASTS

ManufTodd Taylor from OPS Rules Management Consultants explains how to optimize your forecasting.

"The funny thing about forecasts is.…they are never accurate,” explained a very experienced operations executive during a recent meeting. A veteran in our industry with 30+ years in supply chain and manufacturing operations; this executive works at a very senior level in an operations leadership position for one of the leading technology companies in the world.  This man claims that that he has “blunted his sword” trying to improve forecasts, but in the end….”forecasts are always wrong”. 

We all know that forecasts are never accurate. We also understand the “bullwhip effect” and what happens in traditional value chains the further a company is from the end consumer. 

Published in
Friday, 23 October 2009 09:55

Forecast time horizons

Here the objective is to establish the demand forecast for a company. But there are different time horizons or levels of forecasting:

Published in
Tuesday, 03 November 2009 19:34

Exponential smoothing

Let’s now dig into the most popular forecasting methods: the simple exponential smoothing model to forecast the next period for a time series without trend, and the double exponential smoothing model taking into account a trend effect.

Published in
Wednesday, 04 November 2009 18:57

Double exponential smoothing

The simple exponential forecasting methods like the weighting moving average methods smoothes out data and there is a lag in the forecast relative to the actual data.
If there is a trend in the data, the forecast will be additionally inexact, that’s why the linear trend needs to be integrated in the exponential smoothing model.

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